Bitcoin has climbed steadily in March and is on pace to post its third positive month in a row , but its narrative has been on a wild ride over the past few weeks. The cryptocurrency has spent much of the past two years trading in lockstep with equities, but that trend has been coming apart since the beginning of 2023. The break became more noticeable in March, as investors rediscovered bitcoin’s appeal as alternative banking system as the regional banking crisis unfolded. Bitcoin’s correlation with the S & P 500 is now at its lowest since September 2021, after reaching its highest ever in 2022 , according to Coin Metrics. Meanwhile, bitcoin’s correlation with gold, a traditionally “risk-off” asset, has risen. “Investors are beginning to view bitcoin as a hedge against the ongoing banking crisis and as a hard asset in this period of high inflation,” said Sam Callahan, analyst at bitcoin services provider Swan Bitcoin. “Bitcoin’s value proposition is fundamentally different in that it’s driven by its network effect and its scarcity rather than, say, earnings growth with equities. This break in correlation is perhaps a sign more investors are waking up to this fact.” Bitcoin became more of an institutional asset at the start of 2021 as big investors, short term traders and macro funds jumped into the market. Government stimulus, Fed monetary policy tightening and other economic concerns that drive the sentiment of these types of investors have also driven bitcoin prices up and down since then. The longer-term thesis never fully disappeared, however. “These correlation data show that, at least recently, bitcoin has indeed performed more like a safe-haven asset than a risk asset,” Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, said in a recent note. “Given the nature of the current crisis – in which the fractional reserve banking system’s core limitations are tested – bitcoin’s fundamental characteristics genuinely distinguish it and, when custody or self-custody is done correctly, can offer a safe port in a storm.” On top of that, bitcoin’s price has remained sensitive to inflation and Federal Reserve rate hikes. This is despite bigger-than-usual knee-jerk reactions to regulatory crackdowns on the biggest crypto exchanges. The Securities and Exchange Commission took enforcement actions against Kraken and Coinbase , and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced a lawsuit against Binance . That could change, however, if the Fed’s inflation-fighting rate hike campaign comes to an end, said Marc Arjoon, crypto research analyst at CoinShares. “As the Fed comes closer to the end of its hiking regime, the large macro factors affecting the various asset classes – bonds, stock, real estate and crypto – will start to wane,” he said. Traders are now expecting the Fed to hold its benchmark interest rate at current levels, with some forecasting lower rates as early as July, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool . Those cuts could total as much as a full percentage point by the end of the year, it shows. “As equities face risks of earnings and GDP recession, bitcoin won’t have the same headwinds,” Arjoon added. “This and the evident cracks in the financial system are why we’ve seen a divergence in returns over the last three months. If and when the Fed eventually pivots whether it comes later this year or next, this will be a boost for crypto more so as it would lead to a less risk-off environment.”
